Cutlass Metrics – Optimization Calculator

The following material was originally conceived as an article in series. At a future date, it will likely be migrated to a dedicated page on the blog – until that happens, this serves as both the calculator page and the third article of the series.
Part 1 – Activation Hands
Part 2 – Action Maps

The following calculators were designed as tools to assist in comparing units / upgrages, and also as an educational tool for demonstrating the incredible mathematics behind Blood & Plunder. If this is your first visit, I ask you that you please read the collapsed section before jumping right into the calculators.

This is not really a “fun” or “glossy” article – and that’s what took me so long to get it published. Even this intro is under a cut, because this is less of an article than it is a tool for you to use.

As a tool, each of these calculators is designed to answer questions like this one:

Questions about optimization, and particularly, about Economy. Whether you are comparing two different units, or comparing a unit to itself (upgrades) – these calculators can at least show you how efficiently your unit will convert Points into outbound Hits.

Why Bother? – The Loaded Die

I know that doing math homework for a wargame seems silly. And when I tell you that it’s just to improve your average results by 10% it seems like a waste of time. It all just seems a bit, well, sweaty…

But imagine for a moment that I was truly a “sweaty try-hard gamer” and would cheat to get an edge. Let’s say that I rig some dice. I’m not going turn all of my 1s into 0s, that would be too obvious. But what about all of our 4s into 5s?
Fives are nothing special. Most of the time, they’ll get scooped up with the 4s and fail just the same, but sometimes that 5 is going to matter an awful lot.
You’d be furious, right?
Optimizing is effectively just legal cheating.
You’re gaining a mathematical advantage over your opponent which can amount to much more than a loaded die.
Why should you expect anyone to not take that advantage, especially in a competitive setting like a tournament?

The Metagame

The irony of taking a year to write these articles after my Adepticon ’25 experience (2nd & 3rd on Land and Sea) is that we’re already starting to see the winning lists from Adepticon ’26 hit the blogs and discord discussions. None of them used these calculators to win, and some aren’t even particularly optimized. That’s good – it means the game is balanced.

For what it’s worth, Dr. D shared his Adepticon list and I cracked through the numbers – the average Share Value of his “Hillbilly Boar Hunt” list was 1.02 – a good, solidly ranged list.

These calculators only evaluate what they see you put into them. They can’t find you better units, choose factions, commanders, or play your games for you. In a well-balanced game like Plunder, wins come from a combination of skill and luck, and optimization only helps to close the gap; it can’t overcome it alone.

v1.0 known issue
You cannot unselect Grape or Swivel once selected, and must use [CLEAR]

Points per Hit (PPH)

Your goal shouldn’t be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs.
– Jonah Hill as Peter Brand, Moneyball

In order to actually compare units and upgrades, we need some way of comparing unequal points values. This requires a ratio. Calculating “Hits per Point” results in very small numbers, smaller differences, and is actually quite worthless considering how we tally our units. Points per Hit is better, representing 1 Hit for every X-points invested into the unit. For this reason

A lower PPH is ‘better‘

or more accurately – reflects a unit that more efficiently converts Points into Hits.
We’re not looking at how many of those Hits are converted into Kills, because statistically, more hits = more kills. The only two rules which are going to throw wrenches are Bows and Deadeye, but it is difficult to accurately gauge how much impact these will have until we’re right there on the table, looking at target saves.

Improving PPH

To improve PPH, we are targeting the calculator’s “core formula,” which is:

Hits = Models × Volleys × Successes on 1D10

• To get PPH, we divide Points by Hits.
• You’ll notice that I do not state To Hit but rather “the number of successful sides on 1D10″ – it is important that you think of improvements to To Hit in this way. It will make more sense momentarily.

We need to think of any change to these values (Hits, Models, Volleys, Successes) as a %change rather than as ±1.
eg. going from 4 → 5 Volleys is not a +1, it is +25%, or ×1.25 to be more “correct”

This allows us to apply the Mathematical Law of Equality to our equation, which simply means that any % Change to Models, Volleys, or Successes, will cause an equivalent % Change to Hits, and by extension to our PPH. Positive changes will lower PPH, and negative changes will raise it.

Changes to Smaller numbers = Larger % Changes

That Law of Equality makes it very easy to “eyeball” the best improvements to a unit by targeting the smallest numbers for the largest change.
eg. we know that going from 4→5_Volleys is a 25% improvement, but if we could go from 2→3_Successes by improving our To Hit value from 9+ to 8+, we would gain a 50%_improvement

Understanding each of these values, how it is reflected in Force Building and in Gameplay will help you to use the calculator, and also to understand how this math impacts Blood & Plunder at large. Each is expanded upon, below:

Models and Points Cost are intrinsically linked. To “improve” models without also raising Points Cost, you have to reduce cost per model.

The reason that I don’t just ask for a “per model” cost up front though, is because not everything in the game is charged “by the model.” Muskets on sailors, and Fighting Men, for example are “per unit.” In terms of impacting PPH, these types of upgrades are more efficient on more expensive units.

The more frequent way that you will see Models impacting PPH is during gameplay, when you take casualties. This is explained in more detail in the section on Dynamic PPH.

Creating an Action Map allows us to quantify the “action economy” of Blood & Plunder, by showing us how special rules like Fast Reload and interactions like Command Points impact our number of attacks. By extension, this calculator turns that value into “real damage on tabletop” via the equation as PPH.

The largest determinant in how many Volleys is the unit’s Experience Level. Whether they are Trained [♥♣] or Inexperienced/Veteran [♠♦] will impact how many actions we should expect our unit to see during a game and – by extension – their number of Volleys.

Rather than debate the ideal % of your Force that should be Trained (especially when you can afford to “miss” cards for Volleys) it is more realistic to consider the option to change Experience Level. The best example of this would come from the Brethren of the Coast rule Varied Experience which allows you to raise or lower Experience for ±1pt per model.

Trained / Inexperienced

Downgrading from Trained to Inexperienced results in a drop from 5→3 Volley, or a 40% loss (×0.6). So to make that up, you would need to find at least a 40% gain in points, and the fact is that there simply isn’t any unit where saving 1 point per model can make up the difference.

The reverse is of course also true; provided you can “feed them” with cards, improving Inexperienced to Trained is worth a 67% improvement in damage for no more than a 33% increase to Points.

Veteran/Trained

I explained in the Cards article how Veteran really only offers reliability over Trained, and not extra actions. That is because while the Veteran can eat anything and average 15 Actions per Game, the Trained unit can stick to [♥♣] and get the same 15 Actions per Game. We can see the effect that this has when making our Action Maps – both units are capable of 5 Volleys across 6 cards, but can only afford to lose 2 Actions – the Veteran unit is much less likely to lose actions to a bad draw.

The calculator is actually blind to “reliability,” but there’s a way to model it or you can trust me. The drop from 5→4 Volley is -20% (×0.8) and the increase in Points Cost from 5→6 points per model is less than that. It’s a gamble though, because if you pay the points and miss the 5th volley anyways, you are now far behind. This is better discussed more as part of Dynamic PPH.

Suit Activated Free Actions – the exception

In the event that you have a rule like Fast Reload, there are notable exceptions.
On Veteran and Inexperienced units, these rules are actual gained actions. Fast Reload for example will take Veterans from 5→6 Volleys, whereas on a Trained unit you are only more likely to get 5 Volleys. This makes rules like Fast Reload or Artillery Crew naturally worth their upgrade cost; especially since Fast Reload only appears on expensive units in the first place.

For Inexperienced units the effect of Fast Reload specifically is amplified, because not only is Volley already a low stat for them and Fast Reload is tantamount to a +33%, but because downgrading to Inexperienced can suddenly be seen as an upgrade. This is not true of Artillery Crew, however, because of the longer reload times.
This also is discussed more in Dynamic PPH

The math-savvy will have realized by now that when I say
“number of successful sides on a d10”
I’m just talking about the To Hit %.

If you need 10s, only 1 face on the die is successful. Otherwise written as 10% or 0.10.
So an improvement to needing 9+ is now 2 faces, 20% or 0.20, a 100%_improvement.

This makes range an excellent demonstrated of the “smaller numbers = bigger changes” pattern of diminishing returns as the number you modify becomes larger.
From To Hit 10→9 representing a 100% improvement
…down to To Hit 3→2 granting just 12.5% improvement
you can see how Range is one of the game’s most important variables.

Although Range is a major component of Dynamic PPH, the calculator recommends the 8-12″ range-band as “default.” This is less about the average range of engagement or anything high-brow, and more about tuning out the impact of improving base Shoot Skill.

Improving to Shoot Skill 6 pays off immediately at 12-16 inches, when it drops to To Hit 9+ and enjoys a 100% improvement over Shoot Skill 7, which is still rolling for 10s. This advantage drops off, but only down to a 25% improvement at less than 4″. The average advantage over Shoot Skill 7 is 60%. At Range 8-12″ that advantage is 50% – it’s just a helpful compromise.

Melee

You don’t need me to explain how to optimize melee – it’s simple. The single most important thing you can do for your numbers is to add Brace of Pistols, Pistols or Thrown Weapons because rerolling misses is so powerful.
eg. the difference between Fight 7 with pistols is the equivalent of Fight 4
At Fight 5, it’s the equivalent of dropping to Fight 3

Beyond rerolls, Fight Skill is affected by the same “diminishing returns” as any other value on the calculator. Most units are Fight 5 or Fight 6, which is only a difference of +20% for the lower value. Dropping from Fight 5→4 is only a 17% improvement, and so on.

All together, this means that Melee is often much more about the number of Models, and who strikes first, than it is about Fight Skill. The importance in striking first is where rules like Quick come into play, but the calculator is blind to such things.

The melee calculator was included for completeness, but also so that you can see exactly the sorts of changes that I’m talking about.

Dynamic PPH

One of the most useful features of the calculator is it’s speed – making it easy to change the values in real-time and see the impacts of those changes immediately.

A frequent criticism of this sort of “theoretical wargaming” is that it does not reflect the “real tabletop.” – that is nonsense

If you understand how each of the different values impacts PPH, then you can probably understand how attritting those values during gameplay would negatively impact PPH – and since PPH is the measure of combat effectiveness versus points invested, this perfectly reflects the way our units wax and wane during gameplay.

All Plunder players know that To Hit 10+ is the great equalizer between units. By extension your largest PPH advantage is just before your opponent goes to To Hit 9+. Either because you are already outshooting your opponent and are about have your largest advantage-gap slashed or because you are about to be on the receiving-end of a 100% advantage-gap.

The good new for the cheap, poor-Shoot Skill units is that the advantage degrades. The most useful measure of this is in the way that “Elite” units lose their ability to hold of numbers of enemies as the ranges close in. These are also handy rules of thumb, by the way:

Shoot 9+ vs. Shoot 10 can resist being outnumber by Double (eg. 6 model vs.12 model)
Shoot 8+ vs. Shoot 9+ can resist being outnumbered by Half (eg. 6 model vs. 9 model)
Shoot 6+ vs. Shoot 7+ can resist being outnumber by Quarter (eg. 8 model vs. 10 model)

You can use these rules of thumb and the principle behind them to decide whether or not your unit should try to settle into a gunfight, retire, or press into melee.

When building your list, and checking rules like Marksman or Drilled – where you spend Actions and thus, potentially Volleys, be sure to check all of your ranges. You might find a “tipping point” between Volley and To Hit.

When we lose models during gameplay, we don’t recover their points cost. We still paid 48 points for the unit, even if there are only 11 guys in it now. This is one reason why our forces collapse and damage stagnates when we’re losing – it seems obvious, but it’s the PPH.

This is also why we see “Elite” units dragged down by “Hordes” – we understand that losing an elite model is more impactful, but the calculator can show us exactly how.
For example: In a shootout between Jamaican Privateers and Soldadoes Reformados at 8″ both start at 5 PPH, but after 4 turns of shooting, the Jamaicans are sitting tight with 6.67 PPH and the Soldadoes have been battered down to 8 PPH.

The Shares Value is my attempt at factoring “survivability” into the calculator, but it is difficult to define for Artillery and is still not perfect. I recommend ticking down casualties on in the calculator and watching how your PPH responds. Expensive units can see their PPH skyrocket as they deteriorate.

The calculator is blind to Resolve and Fatigue, because we can’t model an “opfor” and know how many times your units are being hit or killed.
In a similar way, it is blind to Movement, because there’s no way of knowing how many actions you will need to take in order to move.

The article on Action Mapping discusses how additional actions at the end of the map are available to be spent for Movement, or lost to bad card draws or Fatigue. They represent a sort of insulation for your more important actions.
The weapon that you are using will determine the maximum number of these “spare actions” you might have – equivalent to your Reloads (if you had a 3rd action you would shoot your musket – a 5th action you would fire your cannon)

You can also just disregard actions, if you like. You aren’t bound to 5 Volley just because you are a Trained unit – you could choose to reduce that number to 4 Volley, giving you a spare 5 actions.

Specifically, a case can be made for a sharper Action Map of just 4 cards.
Missing-out 2 cards is more accurate in my opinion.
Those cards might represent early-game turns spent waiting for targets to come into range, or moving into position. They could represent late-game turns where you are in melee, or the game is well in hand or where your opponent has even Struck.
They can equally represent an Attack or even a full Activation lost to Fatigue.

Of particular interest, 4 Card Maps also give a more realistic comparison between units, where the first 4 cards of an engagement are paramount.
Consider a Veteran unit. They fire their muskets for 4 Volley on Cards 1 & 2
In contrast, an Inexperienced unit fires 2 Volleys, on Cards 1 & 4
Rather than the 40% deficit they have on the 6-card, on a 4 Card Map the Inexperienced unit is actually 2 & 2 with the Veterans (albeit, firing slower)

The other thing that 4 Card Maps allow is a completely “blind” array of cards – one of each suit. This best reflects totally average, completely blind draws and can be useful if you have an excess of Trained units or just think I’m full of shit about mapping the cards in your hand.

Reducing Volleys raises PPH

This is part of the equation and mathematically valid. However, it will also raise your Shares value, unless you check the box for 4 Card Map to keep your evaluation fair with the “benchmark” unit.

Understanding Shares

The Shares score is one way to account for “survivability” in our calculations. It establishes a sort of videogame-style Kill-Death Ratio (KDR) comparing how many points it takes cause 1 Hit (PPH) against the likelihood of losing those Points as Casualties to incoming hits. To make this value more usable as a metric for comparison, the KDR of a widely available and acceptably “fair” Ranged unit was established as 1 Share.

Shares can be thought of as an approximate “gunfight score“

Units with an equal Shares should fight their way to mutual oblivion. Furthermore, units with greater than 1 Share have a more positive KDR than a widely available “fair” unit, with a score of 2 Shares representing a unit with a KDR that is a 100% improvement (2×) the sample unit.
The opposite is true for units valued less than 1 Share.

Shares is NOT an expression of whether a unit is “worth its Points“!!

Shares almost didn’t make it onto the public version of the calculator, because I was worried that players would misunderstand it’s purpose. Shares is not a commentary on Points Cost or game balance – because it uses PPH, it is just as “blind” as the rest of the calculator.

Current version 1.0 & Roadmap

It’s my hope to improve these calculators over time. I have been using these calculators frequently for my own list-building, so I expect that I will be revisiting them to add functionality and features. I would not expect this process to be particularly quick, nor can I make any guarantees – it took me over a year just to get this published.

• v.1.0 CURRENT – users have to import their own stats, calculate volleys, and To Hit.
  Add Shares function to Artillery and possibly to Melee
  Add self-calculating Volleys using Experience & Special Rules
  Combine all 3 calculators to 1 function
• v.2.0 – Units Update – autofilling base values for units
• v.3.0 – Force Update – the ability to recreate an entire force in the calculator

Let me know in the comments if there is anything that you would find particularly useful in the calculator, or if you’ve got any questions.

Now, if you’ll excuse me